Saturday, July 9, 2011

multiplicative time series model

images contrast time series. multiplicative time series model. the time series data.
  • the time series data.



  • nojoke
    04-14 02:05 PM
    It is not going down everywhere...I am in a location where people are buying houses like mad and the prices are actually better than last year.

    And yet, some people in my location are thinking about nothing but resale. They are not able to see a home as anything other than an investment and I am referring to such people in my earlier post.

    Where do you live? Give it time...





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  • time of multiplicative



  • pappu
    04-09 02:42 PM
    Let us all have constructive discussion on this bill rather than fighting with each other or blaming others or blaming companies. Think of ways you can strengthen this organization and help us in the work we have in front of us.

    This thread has run into several pages, but the call the lawmakers thread was begging for attention whole of last week.





    multiplicative time series model. Figure 4: Top: XIS0 time
  • Figure 4: Top: XIS0 time



  • nogc_noproblem
    08-26 11:09 PM
    Three mischievous old Grandmas were sitting on a bench outside a nursing home...

    ... when an old Grandpa walked by. And one of the old Grandmas yelled out saying, "We bet we can tell exactly how old you are." The old man said, "There is no way you can guess it, you old fools."

    One of the old Grandmas said, "Sure we can! Just drop your pants and under shorts and we can tell your exact age."

    Embarrassed just a little, but anxious to prove they couldn't do it, he dropped his drawers.

    The Grandmas asked him to first turn around a couple of times and to jump up and down several times.

    Then they all piped up and said, "You're 87 years old!"

    Standing with his pants down around his ankles, the old gent asked, "How in the world did you guess?"

    Slapping their knees and grinning from ear to ear, the three old ladies happily yelled in unison - - "We were at your birthday party yesterday!"





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  • time of the multiplicative



  • irock
    07-14 02:17 PM
    couldn't say it better.

    About same time last year we had different "schism" on these forums: July 2007 filers with approved labor who could file their 485s Vs those with older PDs but unfortunately stuck in BECs. Most of Eb3s who are outraged today are July 2007 filers. Any guesses how many of them requested BEC victims back then "to be happy" for others and not rock the boat?

    The unfortunate fact is that although everyone here is convinced of their moral high ground it is nothing more than self-preservation at the end. If it was just that it would still be fine (human nature) but still more unfortunate is the fact that we as a group never get this riled up - except few notable and respected exceptions - as long as everyone is equally miserable. Only if we had so much participation in all action items (admin fixes, house bills, funding drive etc.)...



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    multiplicative time series model. The model fits are reported in
  • The model fits are reported in



  • pappu
    07-13 11:37 AM
    My thougts are, writing letter would not help, It will go to deaf ears. EB3-I status is not hidden to any one DOS/USCIS/DOL, but looks like no one is doing any thing for that.
    When USCIS can interpret so many things why cant they interpert to recapture unused visa numbers ?
    I guess they will find some other way to mess up.

    IV already met DOS, USCIS on visa recapture during our admin fix campaign. IV even met this official mentioned in the first post this thread in the letter. There was a long conversation with this official. IV even went higher up in the hierarchy of DOS to meet officials. Visa recapture needs to be done via a bill at this time.





    multiplicative time series model. multiplicative effect (mn)
  • multiplicative effect (mn)



  • riva2005
    04-08 01:11 PM
    Guys you are unnecessarily raking your brain over this. This is a blatant anti immigrant anti eb green card bill disguised as h1 reform. The people who wrote this bill are the same people who were carrying placards saying "legal immigrants welcome, no to illegal immigration". Now do you really believe them? Even Jeff sessions was one of them and he is the number one opposer of legal eb immigrants.

    Pitha,

    You're going in the right direction. But a slight correction here.

    These guys...Sessions, Grassley etc dont really support or oppose anything on principle. Its not like they have made up their mind about what they think is right or wrong for the country. They are responding to their campaign contributors. Plain and simple.

    I can cite 2 such examples:

    Firstly, Senator Dianne Feinstein. She was against Amnesty. Thru and thru. Now, the spinach and lettuce growers lobbied her. Suddenly, she supported and sponsored Agjobs bill. And what does Agjobs bill have in it? Mini-Amnesty, but only limited to agricultural workers. And this change of heart didnt even take 6 months. Elected officials tend to be very flexible when you are suffering from weight of heavy and burdensome cash in your pockets that needs to be relieved.

    Another example, our own dear Senator Chuck Grassley from the State of Iowa. He is strong opponent of Amnesty. Believes in the rule of law. Always opposed to legalizing the illegals ... except when he doesnt. When does he not oppose legalization? When is co-sponsors Agjobs bill with Sen. Dianne Feinstein? You see, Iowa isnt exactly the Silicon Priarie if Bay Area is the silicon valley so he dunt give damn about them damn H1B scum. But Iowa does grow quite a bit of corn. And suddenly the corn has become a cash-rich crop due to Ethanol. So the farmers of Iowa had a heavy burden of the extra cash in their pockets. Senator Chuck Grassley relieved that extra weight of cash from corn growers and chose to co-sponsor the Agjobs bill that gives Amnesty to agricultural workers.

    This is the data from the Federal Election commission that tracks money in politics and www.opensecrets.org where there is a more user-friendly way to find out the same data of who gives money to whom in politics and lobbying.


    Senator Dianne Feinstein : 2005-2006 PAC Contributions
    Based on data released by the FEC on Monday, February 19, 2007.

    Obtained from www.opensecrets.org : http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/memberprofile.asp?cid=N00007364&cycle=2006&expand=A07

    TOTAL Agribusiness $97,000

    Crop Production & Basic Processing $47,000
    American Cotton Shippers Assn $1,000
    Blue Diamond Growers $3,000
    Calcot Ltd $1,500
    California Avocado Proponent $1,000
    California Citrus Mutual $3,000
    California Cotton Growers Assn $500
    California Grape & Tree Fruit League $1,500
    California Rice Industry Assn Fund $1,000
    Farmers' Rice Cooperative $8,000
    Florida Crystals $1,000
    Louisiana Rice PAC $1,000
    National Assn of Wheat Growers $1,000
    National Cotton Council $1,000
    National Potato Council $1,000
    Nisei Farmers League $2,000
    Producers Rice Mill Inc $1,000
    Raisin Bargaining Assn $3,500
    Riceland Foods $1,000
    Southern Minn Beet Sugar Co-op $4,000
    Sun-Maid Growers of California $2,000
    Sunkist Growers $1,000
    USA Rice Federation $2,000
    Western Growers Assn $1,000
    Western Pistachio Assn $4,000

    Total Agricultural Services/Products $17,000

    American Assn of Nurserymen $2,000
    American Veterinary Medical Assn $2,000
    California Westside Farmers Inc $1,000
    Farm Credit Council $6,000
    Friant Water PAC $2,000
    National Council of Farmer Co-ops $1,000
    Nestle Purina PetCare $1,000
    Society of American Florists $2,000


    Senator Chuck Grassley : 2005-2006 PAC Contributions
    Based on data released by the FEC on Monday, February 19, 2007.

    Obtained from www.opensecrets.org : http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/memberprofile.asp?cid=N00001758&cycle=2006&expand=P

    Total Agribusiness $34,500

    Crop Production & Basic Processing $1,000
    Dairy $5,000
    Poultry & Eggs $1,000
    Livestock $1,000
    Agricultural Services/Products $14,500
    Food Processing & Sales $8,000
    Forestry & Forest Products $4,000



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    multiplicative time series model. Linear Models with Matrix
  • Linear Models with Matrix



  • Macaca
    08-01 08:24 PM
    House Votes 411-8 to Pass Ethics Overhaul (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/07/31/AR2007073100200.html) Far-Reaching Measure Faces Senate Hurdles By Jonathan Weisman Washington Post Staff Writer, August 1, 2007

    The House gave final and overwhelming approval yesterday to a landmark bill that would tighten ethics and lobbying rules for Congress, forcing lawmakers to more fully detail how their campaigns are funded and how they direct government spending.

    The new lobbying bill would, for the first time, require lawmakers to disclose small campaign contributions that are "bundled" into large packages by lobbyists. It would require lobbyists to detail their own campaign contributions, as well as payments to presidential libraries, inaugural committees and charities controlled by lawmakers. The proposal would also put new disclosure requirements on special spending measures for pet projects, known as "earmarks."

    "What we did today was momentous," declared House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). "It's historic."

    The bill is the most far-reaching attempt at ethics reform since Watergate, although it is not as aggressive as some legislators wanted in restricting the use of earmarks and in requiring the disclosure of donation bundling. The legislation, which had been stalled until negotiators worked out a deal in recent days to get it passed before the August recess, is a priority for Democrats, who won control of Congress in part because they had decried what they called "a culture of corruption" under Republicans.

    Although it passed the House 411 to 8, the bill could face hurdles in the Senate, which is under a new ethics cloud after the FBI raid Monday on Sen. Ted Stevens's house. Last night, a group of Republican senators prevented Democrats from bringing up the bill, forcing the scheduling of a vote tomorrow to break the filibuster. Still, senators from both parties predicted easy passage by week's end.

    Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) all but dared Republicans to try to block the proposal when it comes to a vote as early as tomorrow. "With that resounding vote in the House, 411-8, I think people ought to be concerned about voting against it," he said yesterday.

    But in a closed-door lunch with fellow Republican senators yesterday, Stevens (R-Alaska) himself threatened to block the measure, objecting that the legislation's new restrictions on lawmakers' use of corporate jets would unfairly penalize members of Congress who live in distant states, such as himself.

    The legislation would end secret "holds" in the Senate, which allow a single senator to block action without disclosing that he or she has done so. Members of Congress would no longer be allowed to attend lavish parties thrown in their honor at political conventions. Gifts, meals and travel funded by lobbyists would be banned, and travel on corporate jets would be restricted. Lobbyists would have to disclose their activities more often and on the Internet. And lawmakers convicted of bribery, perjury and other crimes would be denied their congressional pensions.

    "These are big-time fundamental reforms," said Fred Wertheimer, president of the open-government group Democracy 21.

    Rep. Michael N. Castle (R-Del.), who failed to get ethics legislation enacted last year, noted that the final bill's disclosure rules are considerably less tough on the "bundling" of small campaign contributions into large donations by lobbyists. The original ethics bill would have required the disclosure of bundled contributions over $5,000 every three months. Under the final bill, lawmakers would have to report every six months any bundled contributions from lobbyists totaling more than $15,000. In one year, a single lobbyist could funnel nearly $30,000 to a candidate or campaign committee without any of those actions having to be disclosed.

    House negotiators also refused to lengthen the current one-year "cooling-off" period, during which former House members are prohibited from becoming lobbyists.

    Some conservatives latched on to the weakening of earmark disclosure rules that had passed the Senate in January. An explicit prohibition on trading earmarks for votes was dropped by House and Senate Democratic negotiators. A prohibition on any earmark that would financially benefit lawmakers, their immediate families, their staff or their staff's immediate families was altered to say that the ban would apply to any earmark that advances a lawmaker's "pecuniary interest." Critics say that would mean the benefit would have to be direct for the measure to be prohibited, and that the ban would not apply to a project that would benefit a larger community, including the lawmaker.

    House members are covered by earmark rules, passed earlier this year, that are tougher than the legislation, which would apply only to senators.

    "Earmarks have been the currency of corruption and, unfortunately, this lobbying reform bill does not adequately address that problem," declared Rep. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), a longtime critic of earmarks.

    Reform groups and Democrats accused opponents of using the earmark issue as a pretext to block the other rule changes. Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), who has blocked the legislation in the past, confirmed that he remains uncomfortable with the broader bill's mandates on lobbying disclosures and gift bans.

    "You could've done nothing, or some staff member could have made an innocent mistake, and now you're defending yourself in a court of law," he said. "It's nuts."

    Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), another critic, had single-handedly blocked the calling of a formal House-Senate conference to negotiate the final deal, forcing Democrats to hammer out the compromise on their own. The House passed it under fast-track procedures that prohibit amendments but require a two-thirds majority for approval -- a threshold that was easily met.

    Now, Reid must get the bill through the Senate without any amendment, using a parliamentary tactic that has been roundly criticized by Republicans in the past as strong-arming. But in this case, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) has given his tacit assent, laying the blame squarely on his own conservative hard-liners.

    "In a sense, we made it difficult on ourselves," McConnell said.

    It may be even more difficult for Republicans to block the measure while their senior senator, Stevens, is under a cloud of suspicion. FBI agents raided the powerful lawmaker's house Monday, looking for evidence in a long-running investigation of an Alaska energy firm, Veco, and its alleged efforts to bribe Alaska lawmakers.

    And yesterday, the House ethics committee indicated that it may consider an inquiry into whether Rep. Heather A. Wilson (R-N.M.) violated rules by calling a federal prosecutor about a pending investigation. The committee's staff interviewed the prosecutor, former U.S. attorney David C. Iglesias, yesterday.

    At least eight lawmakers -- six Republicans and two Democrats -- are under federal investigation. Earlier this year, the homes and business interests of Reps. Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.) and John T. Doolittle (R-Calif.) were searched, and Rep. William J. Jefferson (D-La.) was indicted on corruption charges.





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  • contrast time series.



  • adusumilli
    08-05 02:18 PM
    can some admin close this thread



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    multiplicative time series model. A Comparison of Time Series
  • A Comparison of Time Series



  • srkamath
    07-13 03:19 PM
    It is funny how EB2s are crying like little babies. Just a hint of EB3 getting more visas is making you guys sweat. You people have all the luck, nothing is going to happen so RELAX.

    Just remember that there are a lot of EB3 out there with Masters degrees, like myself, and waiting since early 2002.

    EB3s - mail out the letter PLEASE!!!!!

    Go ahead do it..... send a badly written letter.
    The content of the letter does not read like it was written by a college graduate - at least seek help with writing a professional letter, it sounds very archaic ! Bad expression, poor grammar, poor reasoning, unreadable.

    The letter will fare better if it is at least readable.

    I'm in EB2 but i will continue to help in IV efforts, and contribute $$ when i can for all efforts EB2 or EB3. I understand the pain of EB3 applicants, so do several (most) others.
    Your posts like ".....crying like little babies...." will not help......





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  • This example splits the time



  • nojoke
    06-23 03:38 PM
    Here is one calculation that might give you one more reason to buy...

    This is taking into consideration bay area good school district ....


    say you are currently in a 2 bedroom paying around $1900 rent (say cupertino school district)

    you buy a townhome for around $500k putting down 20%
    so loan amount is 400k
    @ 5% instrest your annual intrest is $ 20k.
    Say 3k HOA anually...
    Property tax....as a rule of thumb, I believe (and have heard from others) whatever poperty tax you pay comes back as your mortgage intrest and property tax is deductable.
    So not taking property tax into account....your annual expense is 23k.

    now here is the nice part....
    you get 8k (or is it 7.5k ?) from FED for buying a house (first time buyer)

    If you get a real estate agent who is ready to give you 50% back on the comission you can get back around 7.5k (assuming the agent gets 3% comission)...I know those kind of agent exist for sure !!

    There is something I have heard about CA also giving you 10k for buying new homes...but I am not sure of this so will leave it out of the calculations...

    so total amount u get back....8k+ 7.5k = 15k approx..

    1st year expense = 23k
    1st year actual expense = 23-15 = 8 k

    which mean monthly rent = 8k/12 = $666 per month (it is like paying $666 rent for a 2 bedroom in cupertino school district)

    Will the property value go up ? I do not know (I wish I knew)...

    Is there a risk ? I would think yes....

    Percentage of risk ? I would think keeping in mind current prices the risk is low...

    I am not telling that you should buy or not buy....just provided one piece of the calculation....-;)

    All the best !

    All these calculations don't play out if the house price keeps dropping. It has gone down in value for the last couple of years. It will go down more until housing is affordable. Right now a million $ for a 3 bedroom in bay area is too much. It has to go down a lot and it will go down. So the question is not about rent vs owning cost. It is a question of how severe the housing price crash is going to be. One can convince themselves playing with numbers. But the fact is that the Alt-A loans are going to get hit in another year and all those shadow inventory that banks are hiding will be forced into the market eventually. By then these rent vs mortgage numbers would mean so little...



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    multiplicative time series model. multiplicative time-series
  • multiplicative time-series



  • amsgc
    07-15 12:01 AM
    Pani,

    I think there will be legislation; if not in the next few months, then next year for sure. Note that the movement in EB2-I has been at the cost of EB2-China and EB3-ROW. Also, there are too many people stuck in EB2 as well, so this movement in PDs will come back to a more realistic level pretty soon. I reckon there will be another push after the elections. My only worry is that our provisions will get all mixed up and confused with those of undocumented workers. This was the best time for us - it is indeed very frustrating to see less than 200 people who make the calls out of an apparant sea of half a million(i am begining to doubt that number now). Only 200 made a contribution to keep this organization strong. what can you really expect? Some of us are just stuck with a large number of people who don't want their GC bad enough.

    Anyway. Come October, many of us will be where we are today. We just have to convince the lawmakers to pass some piecemeal legislation that will give relief across the board - bills like the Lofgren bills is the answer.

    I am not sure what the USCIS can do in this regard - they are limited by the law and the numbers. The most we can expect from them is admin fixes where they relax/remove the requirement of a "job offer", give a temp. green card etc. etc.





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  • In a multiplicative structure



  • desi3933
    08-05 04:55 PM
    You seem to be a rational person. You points are compelling and that's why we need to take some legal opinion on it.

    Thanks SunnySurya.

    Personally, lawsuit against EB-2 eligibility due to BS+5years or against porting due to BS+5 is not a good idea.



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    house Multiplicative Time Series multiplicative time series model. The best-fit model has a
  • The best-fit model has a



  • gcisadawg
    01-03 02:20 AM
    My dad was a never govt employee but I'm sad that Govt folks were so much underpaid!

    When they get bribes, why bother about pay? Sorry, I've no respect for these low lifes who take bribe and make common man run from pillar to post.





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  • a multiplicative model is



  • NKR
    04-14 02:53 PM
    what is your point duuude when you say "Let�s say you have a small kid and you are living in an apartment, after 10 years you save enough money to buy a big house and you then eventually you buy it. Then you ask the your kid �do you like the house?�. He will reply �it�s very nice dad, but can you give you give my childhood now?.�
    do you mean to say all those who are renting will buy after 10 years or do you mean to say that children who grow up in rented house or appt ..don't have a childhood ?? as it was mentioned in earlier posts ..there is a greater chance that your son / daughter will find a likeminded play friend in a good apartment complex then in a subdivision of houses.

    You will never learn. Anyways, if you read my earlier posts you would know that I have said that people who most people who live in apartments would be having valid reasons. I have also said that if I were in CA. I would be living in an apartment too. I am never against renting or living in an apartment, but I am against renting when it makes perfect sense to buy and when the time is right (which of course is NOT NOW).

    My counter arguments are for people who were scaring people into not buying a house when things are conducive for them. Note, when I say conducive it means all things considered as in the time is right, they have a good job, have found a very good deal in a location having a very good school and they have found something which has an extra room when their elderly parents visit them.



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  • of the models are reported



  • SunnySurya
    08-05 04:08 PM
    You seem to be a rational person. You points are compelling and thats why we need to take some legal opinion on it.
    This does not apply. As long as BS+5 years progressive post-baccalaureate experience is ok for EB-2, the priority date recapture is as per law.

    ______________________________
    US Permanent Resident since 2002





    dresses In a multiplicative structure multiplicative time series model. Time Series Analysis:
  • Time Series Analysis:



  • xyzgc
    12-30 02:23 AM
    I think you missed my point. Which was that the 'solution' that Mr rinku1112 was suggesting, destabilizing Pakistan by funding dissident groups, is something that Pakistan already suspects India is doing. And there might be some truth to it. So, then, Pakistan would want to fund groups that would try to destabilize India.
    Thats the vicious cycle.

    It might be true, it might not be. Its only reactionary if its at all true and a very subdued reaction that is. If India was Israel in its attitude and what it is in its size, you wouldn't have seen the vicious circle that you think you see. It would have been all over by now - without all the intellectual sparring and head-banging that go on, on these immigration forums. Pakistani terrorism would have been a moot point - a non-issue.



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    makeup A Comparison of Time Series multiplicative time series model. Multiplicative Time Series
  • Multiplicative Time Series



  • arunmohan
    03-25 04:48 PM
    www.ushomeauction.com





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  • multiplicative time series model. time–latitude distribution



  • Pineapple
    12-24 04:31 PM
    Dude, I have donated over $ 1000 to IV so far, and participated in every campaign, and made enough calls to give me blisters, all without seeking attention or green dots. Next please?

    I think you and many others like you didn't want to go in the first place. You are just inventing an excuse.
    There are other threads on this forum, this is not a good excuse. If you don't like this thread, don't bother reading it. Its really simple.





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  • Multiplicative Decomposition



  • sledge_hammer
    03-24 05:06 PM
    My Dear Friend:

    Why do you want to defend crooks? Instead of ackowledging the fact that desi consulting companies are exploiting loopholes, you rather want to know why other companies are not feeling the heat. This is typical of us desis. There is absolutely no introspection.

    For once, accept that we are at fault.

    Its like this - You are in school and your teacher catches you copying off the next person. Now instead of correcting yourself, if you complain to the teacher that another classmate was also copying so you should not be penalized, will your treacher let you go?

    I am sorry, I am not a very knowledgeable person in immigration matters like many of you, but when it comes to finger pointing, we have to show all consulting companies and why only DESI companies are getting into this discussion. I know friends who worked for IBM & KPMG on H1b travels to all states for short term contracts. What about those biggies? They are also desi firms?

    How did you come to US in the first place? if not thru a consulting company ( I know F1 is another option) either thru big companies like TCS, Wipro or Infy or through desi consulting firms. Pls do not forget the fact that USCIS changed their stand now and saying that it is not legal to work else where other than employer location. If they implement that rule from start then this mess wouldn't happen.

    Now, we are in trouble and so stop finger pointing and give any good advise if you can.

    FYI..I am an FTE and I came to us thru a multinational firm and never worked for a desi consulting cmpny.





    njboy
    04-08 08:14 PM
    genuine firms like microsoft are unable to hire h1b people because ..guess what? all the h1 quota is over..here in new jersey, I was approached multiple times by people who said if I get anyone to file an h1 in their company, and if the h1 came through..I would get 1000 U.S.D. I asked them..what should be their qualification, they said..dont worry about qualification, they'd give a free course for QC tester and place them. So I wont be surprised if big fortune 500 companies are also behind this bill.





    ss1026
    12-20 03:32 PM
    I was saddened and anguised with the terrrorist attacks that happened in Mumbai. I hope India follows up on its tough talk and goes after the perpetrators, no matter their affliation or the consequences. That was a provocation and I would love to see LeT or anyone else responsible to pay for it.

    But It is sad to see 'educated individuals' channeling their anger to demonize muslims who are equally upset with the Mumbai incident. Just like any religion/race, there are extreme elements among muslims. But this guilt-by-association should not have any place in modern society though sadly it does. There have been subtle and some not-so-subtle attempts on IV to protray all muslims as terrorists or all terrorists as muslim.

    I agree that there are a lot of current terrorist activities that can be attributed to muslims and I condemn them. But Indian muslims have stood up against this latest incident. They are asked to wear their allegiance on the sleeve as if they are in some way responsible for this heinous crime. There are numerous examples of non-muslims who are terrorists but in my view that does not render the whole community as such. The gujarat genocide, the attacks on christians in Orissa and other parts are led by the VHP/RSS but the right wing marketing blitz has been so effective, a lot of people have defended this as a reaction. That is exactly the kind of excuse the LeT or any other terrorist organization would make.

    Why is it so hard to say - Lets punish the guilty irrespective of their name or religion. Lets have a transparent Criminal justice system. Lets investigate any crime before guilty verdict is pronounced. That would render ineffective any propaganda that extremists use to recruit new members. Most of the people in this forum live in America and the law of this country would be in my view a good example of punishing the guilty irrespective of who and where they come from.



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